Insight from our top analysts on the news that matters
The market got it all wrong. Greece voted ‘no’ - with 61% majority - for another bailout package from the EU. The no vote doesn’t imply an automatic exit from the Eurozone; however Grexit becomes the base case scenario. Greece should now find 3.5 billion euro before July 20 to reimburse the ECB, besides the outstanding IMF debt.
The European equity indices gapped down in week open. EURUSD opened at 1.1003, hit 1.0970 before steadily recovering toward 1.11; the DAX futures opened 352 pts lower and tested the critical support at 10800.
Equity markets have, akin to last week, sold off but the downside is for now somewhat limited. The fact that we saw a bounce in the euro and indices on the back of the Varoufakis resignation suggests that the markets expect further negotiations now. The main downside is within the Dax and the Cac with the single currency manifesting its new found resilience in the wake of a crisis and remaining above the $1.1050 level.
The German bund is seeing capital flow with the 10 year yield falling to 0.71%. ...Read article
With the US on a half day ahead of the Independence Day we can expect light trading volumes. An elevated Volatility Index and the uncertain outcome of the Greek referendum on Sunday may lead significant ‘risk-off’ over the coming days. The polls offer little information with a very tight split between the No/Yes.
If the mere announcement of a referendum sent the markets into turmoil last week then a ‘No’ Vote will likely present even more volatility as it is extremely unclear what might happen from ...
The negotiations between Greece and the EU are frozen until July 5th referendum, until Greeks voice their opinion on whether or not Greece should accept the 3rd bailout package. The latest polls show that the yes-no ratio remains very much balanced. At this stage, there is little visibility on the outcome of the referendum and Greece’s future in the Eurozone.
The over-stretched negotiations and the failure to seal a deal certainly hit the popularity of Syriza. The capital controls and the temporary rupture in banking activity, ...
As Greece walks to July 5th referendum to decide whether or not to accept a third bailout package from the EU, we do not expect any significant development until Monday and shift our attention to the US.
US added 256K nonfarm jobs in average over the past 15 months
Good news came out of the US yesterday. The US economy added 237K new private jobs in June according to the ADP report. Due today (at 1330 BST), the nonfarm payrolls are also expected to ...Read article
A full macro calendar and no real news emanating from either the Greek camp or that of its creditors is keeping equity markets broadly buoyant this morning. Naturally with markets a slave to headlines in the short term, it would be premature to believe that we’re out of the woods. This could well be the calm before the ultimate storm.
The FTSE is up 0.67% and the Dax is also recapturing some gains (+0.76%) aided by a better than prior print in its June manufacturing output. The euro ...Read article
The IMF confirmed that Greece missed its payment and made a request to extend the deadline. If the market gave no reaction, it is certainly because nobody expected Greece to open the wallet in June 30. After trading in the tight range of 1.1115/47 in Asia, EURUSD bounced back to 1.1171 as PM Tsipras, surprisingly and unexpectedly, said that the Hellenic Republic is ready to accept amendments to extend the expiring bailout program.
Greece will continue occupying the headlines. There are rumours that July 5th referendum may be cancelled, or ...Read article
The fact that the UK grew 0.4% in the first quarter and 2.4% year on year is great news. Unfortunately the positive news has failed to underpin the FTSE100 which is presently down some 1.15% with only two stocks in the green. The pound pushed a little higher against the dollar to 1.5744 and may well continue the trajectory were it not for the appetite for safe havens this week.
Carpetright (+2%) Full year results were strong, despite the decline in gross margin which is a reflection of heavy promotion to boost ...Read article
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